The Center for Prediction MarketsCouncil on Forecasting Standards

Promoting independent research and high standards for prediction markets

The Center for Prediction Markets is an initiative of the Council on Forecasting Standards, Inc., a Delaware non-profit whose mission is to develop professional standards for forecasting and to promote rigorous scientific research and education for prediction markets. The Center supports independent research and public education on prediction markets for lawmakers, operators, and the general public.

Programs

Research

Independent, published research on market integrity, contract design, settlement, and surveillance, and on the use of prediction markets as a source of public information.

Education and standards

Professional standards for forecasting, and public education that helps lawmakers, operators, and the public understand what prediction markets do and how to evaluate them.

Innovation sandbox

A controlled environment for testing new contract designs, settlement rules, and surveillance practices at small scale, in consultation with regulators and in coordination with regulated exchanges, as a resource for operators, regulators, and the industry as a whole.

Engagement

The Center works with regulators, exchange operators, and academic researchers, and reports its findings publicly so that they can be independently verified. Its Executive Director is a member of the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, academic advisor to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, and has more than a decade of experience in prediction markets.

Recent research
  1. The Margin of Inefficiency: Reading Prediction Market Prices as Bounds on Probability
    Working paper, October 2026
  2. Prediction Markets and the Public Interest: Guiding Principles for the CFTC, the States, and the Courts
    Futures and Derivatives Law Report, Vol. 46, No. 9, October 2026
  3. The Kelly Criterion with an Estimated Edge
    Researchers.One, September 2026
  4. Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction Markets
    Research report commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, June 2026
  5. Sports Betting Regulation: The States v. the Public Interest
    Futures and Derivatives Law Report, Vol. 45, No. 8, September 2025
Events
Leadership
Harry Crane
Harry Crane
Executive Director
Professor of Statistics, Rutgers University
Correspondence
info@forecastingstandards.org

Inquiries from regulators, operators, researchers, and the press.